I think at this point it’s almost certainly clear that Biden will win the 2020 election. I don’t like that this is the case but the numbers seem to be airing on the side of a massive blow out in favor of the Democrats this election. It’s likely they’ll win the presidency, keep the House of Representatives and win the Senate by some margin too.
Personally speaking, I’m not happy about that. I despise much of Biden’s career as a politician. I hate the way he condescendingly treated Clarence Thomas during his hearings in the early 1990s. I hate his egotism and Sense of entitlement. I hate that he treats his constituents like trash and says black people who don’t vote for him “ain’t black”. I hate the air of corruption and politics as usual that surrounds his figure.
For good measure. I REALLY hate that his election is going to make the country relitigate the legacy of President Obama after the eight year screaming match his decadent administration became…
Biden to me is everything wrong with Washington politics as usual.
All that said, Biden is not a threat to the republic in the way that Obama, Clinton and Sanders were before him. He has no grand progressive vision for society. Just listen to what progressives think about him. Far-leftists HATE him and wanted an honest progressive like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Biden is, first and foremost, a mediocre establishment hack.
Biden’s entire energy is that of a “return to normalcy” candidate. He’s not a blatant socialist and likely would only serve as a holding pattern for the next four years. Certainly the Democratic Party would use the time to pull all sorts of crap like court packing and ending various immigration standards but he’s not going to “abolish the police” or force the Green New Deal through Congress.
Biden would almost certainly be our generation’s Jimmy Carter. He would likely be a one-term non-presence that consolidates the Republican Party enough to return in the 2022 midterm and 2024 presidential election.
Of course, the two most common things I hear from my fellow conservatives when I bring this up is that Biden is some sort of harbinger of the end times or that he’s entirely a puppet of the establishment meant the shepherd a more progressive candidate like Kamala Harris into office.
I have conservative friends with a laundry list of concerns about what Biden and Harris will do in office that I think are legitimate but some of the rhetoric I’ve heard about Biden and Harris is insane. I’ve heard his policies being compared to Hitler’s policies and I’ve heard both candidates being described as “the Anti-Christ” by religious friends and family members.
I understand the concern that Biden is the embodiment of the Democratic establishment but conservatives who think he’s some kind of Trojan Horse candidate forget just how forceful and egotistical Biden is. Joe Biden is one of the most cynical lifelong politicians in Washington and his entire career has been focused on party politics. If he got in office, he wouldn’t be eager to die or retire for the next generation. This is as much an ego trip for him as it is a holding pattern for the Democratic Party.
As for the concerns that he or Kamala is the AntiChrist… they’re not. I’m just gonna leave it at that.
When faced with the reality of his likely victory, conservatives are quick to defend Trump’s victory in 2016. Instead of being a fluke wherein the deeply unpopular Hillary Clinton lost for being extremely unpopular outside of her party, much of the right believes that the “polls were rigged” from the outset of the election and that the silent majority is going to swoop in and deliver Trump a landslide victory.
Trump very well might edge out a victory but the notion that the silent majority is going to vote en masse is unlikely. It may be true that a percentage of Trump voters are hiding their support from pollsters out of fear of retribution for how deep the stigma of voting for him is.
That said, most Trump voters are quite outspoken about their love of him. Moderate centrists are likely going to be split down the middle between disdain for the far-left and disdain for Trump this election given how contentious the last four years have been.
Looking at the statistics, there’s a very clear and concise argument to be made that the polls aren’t lying and that the polls weren’t off in 2016. Outside of some of the ridiculous claims in 2016 like Hillary having a 95% chance of victory, the final polls before the election were within the margin of error for a marginal Trump victory.
One of my mutuals aquiantences and favorite YouTubers Stephen Michael Davis covered this recently in a video debunking the “Polls are Rigged” claim on the right.
As he argues, there’s a massive economic disincentive for polling firms to rig the polls if Biden loses. Rigging the polls would be against the interests of polling firms who garner their reputations among corporate clients via polling statistics. A statistician who can calculate statistics is going to lose a lot of business very quickly.
Similarly, such a strategy at the level of the Democratic Party could backfire massively by making Democrats complacent and Republicans turn out in droves. The last thing you want to do in a tight election is to make your voters think victory is assured and that their vote isn’t necessary.
At the moment, statistics from conservative, progressive and non-affiliated sources alike are trending negatively for President Trump. As National Review wrote recently:
“The enormous interest in the presidential race, in a pro-Trump/anti-Trump dichotomy, probably explains why we see pollsters asking about both the presidential race and key Senate races in swing states and finding significantly lower levels of support for the Senate candidates. There’s just not much oxygen left over for those down-ticket candidates, for good or for ill. For example, this week Siena surveyed 614 likely voters in Michigan and found Joe Biden with 48 percent, Trump with 40 percent, Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen with 1 percent, Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins with 1 percent, one percent volunteering “someone else”, and 8 percent said they didn’t know or refused”
As of October 19th, Biden holds a lead in the general election by 6 percentage points according to RealClearPolitics. That’s a decline from an 11 point lead on October 15th.
Assuming the margin of error among the polls is roughly 3%, that means Trump has a massive disadvantage to recover from before Election Day.
Trump is losing in key swing states like Michigan Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin that he needed to win 2016. Trump’s job approval is in trending negatively and his performance in the first debate in September 29th made him look like a jerk. It’s likely that not only is Trump going to lose but that both houses of Congress will go for Democrat candidates and incumbents.
The New York Times even thinks Biden may win by a margin in the electoral college as high as 100 votes. Though improbable in an election cycle this aggressive, that would qualify as a categorical rejection of Trump by the body politic of that happened.
Given cratering statistics for the past several months, the polls would suggest the victory is Biden’s to lose. He might very well lose his lead in the final weeks going up to he election as events come to a head the Vegas betting odds are still on Biden.
It’s not hard to see why either. Despite the obnoxious conduct of Democrats in the past four years as they festered conspiracy theories, riots, tyrannical lockdown measures and open calls for political violence and revolution, the general voting public likely still thinks that the chaos of the moment is coming from the top down.
Trump has everything to lose come next Tuesday and he will be more than a little at fault if he does lose the election.
I don’t want Biden to win. Im not endorsing him and I’m not voting for him come next Tuesday. I’m just being realistic.
I have my own laundry list of reasons to be worried for a Biden presidency. I’m worried he might try and stack the Supreme Court, open the southern border to complete amnesty for illegal immigrants and radically construct gun rights. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democratic Party uses his time in office to try and gerrymander their election prospects.
All that said, Biden is a normal Democrat. He’s not something that the country couldn’t work through with the help of the Supreme Court and necessary counter protesting of his policy initiatives we don’t like.
While it remains to be seen how tonight’s debate and the recent allegations made against Biden’s son will affect his statistics in the next two weeks, it’s probably that he will continue to maintain a significant lead until Election Day on November 3rd.
If you think Biden is the literal end of the American experiment or the usher of the end times, I recommend getting your affairs in order so Election Day doesn’t cause you to spiral into despair.
Biden is a mediocre Democrat. The country has survived dozens of years of politicians like him and it will survive till 2024 if he wins. Any societal death spiral in which Donald Trump is the only savior of western civilization can’t be one that won’t survive four years or a mediocre cynical democrat. If we can’t handle that, we were doomed from the start.
One thought on “Biden Will Probably Win 2020 – And that’s Okay… Mostly”
Whatever the country has survived, it certainly didn’t tolerate Trump for almost four years. The lies, the hate, and unrelenting violence would have downed someone as weak as Biden in a matter of months. Yet, if Biden wins, I get the impression you expect capitulation and resignation. Perhaps Americans should lie down and hope for 2024 while being done over by the Democrats. Much is spoken about Biden’s age. But that man won’t even last a term. He has early onset dementia, so it’s not Biden people are voting for, but Kamala Harris.